DariusGallagherT2X

BooksAndArticles

As many of you probably have heard in the last few days

> HDMI Forum to AMD: No, you can’t make an open source HDMI 2.1 driver

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/02/hdmi-forum-to-amd-no-you-cant-make-an-open-source-hdmi-2-1-driver/

The reason for this development is crystal clear. The most widespread display connector in the world is at war with open source. HDMI 2.1 is the standard needed for using 4k and high fps simultaneously. Its only competitor being display port. 

But is DP really a competitor? It's not like you can choose since all devices are on HDMI-only. Your USB-C cables use hdmi internally too. There are no TVs with Display Port. Basically only desktop computers sometimes use DP. 

Most egregious of all is why this is happening: HDMI literally created for adding DRM to Cables. It's about piracy. And almost all hardware manufacturers are collaborators. HDMI capture cards do exists. But they're already cracking down on it. They don't want you to own any media.


The HDMI forum is at war with Linux

Stacker_Sports

Phoenix Wallet announces support for new LSP protocol (bLIP 35)

ChrisMcclureZBE

Started a 21-day challenge in which I aimed to learn something new about Bitcoin or interact with its ecosystem every day. I would also record my progress on Stacker News.

Day 19 - Was thrilled to encounter Zapread and registered an account with it. Though my excitement died down when another patron @Undisciplined mentioned that Zapread seems to be inactive these days, I have hopes that having another Bitcoin-focused Avenue would stimulate my brain juices and motivate me to write more. 

I just signed up for SN after lurking for some time. Feels nice to just login through lightning without providing any email or whatnot.

I'm pretty excited about the bitcoin prediction markets. It's a nice way to coordinate distributed knowledge about the future -- and have people put actual, real-world money behind their projections. 

_This_ one, though, seems outrageous: [Will the U.S. National Debt Cross $40trn Before July 4th?](https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/predictions/38/will-the-u.s.-national-debt-cross-$40t-before-july-4th,-2025). 
It probably just opened and got seeded, which is why the odds are so stupid (even).  

![](https://m.stacker.news/63420)

I pretty much see _no way_ this is going to happen. 

**Some general observations:**
- We're at **$36trn** today. 
- Fiscal Year 2024 (year ended Sept 2024) deficits = **$1.83** trillion
- U.S. nominal GDP about **$29.1trn**
- Last month the Treasury ran a $257bn deficit ([Fiscal Data](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government)); these things come in unevenly but even if you extrapolate that over the next eight months (=**2.056trn**) you're still nowhere near the 40trn mark. 
- if we take the highest single-month deficits in recent years ($380bn) and extrapolate _that_, we get about 3trillion -- again, roughly a trillion short. 
- Fed is bringing BS _down_, not up, meaning the appetite for opportunistically issuing more Treasurys that the market could stomach is limited. 

Looking at this in a different roundabout way: 
- U.S. growth might be **2.5%** next year ([Goldman Sachs](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-economy-is-forecast-to-grow-solidly-in-2025#:~:text=US%20GDP%20is%20projected%20to,of%20the%20consensus%20at%201.9%25.))
- U.S. deficit should be around **7.6%** of GDP ([Fitch](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/tax-cuts-could-add-to-us-deficit-pressures-07-11-2024))
- That gives us 29.1 x 1.025 x 0.076 =$2.27 trillion worth of deficits (for _the entire FY 2025, not just until July 4th). 

If NGDP growth were 5%, pretty extraordinary as we're hinting at recession etc, and the deficit blew out to 10-15%, _only then_ would we get close to the mark for the full Fiscal Year 2025. 

Even with some Trump tax cuts early next year (which probs won't pass Congress etc., in time to do much) there's no way they're running 2-years plus worth of deficits in eight months. And the Elon-Vivek DOGE thing, if likely to do anything at all, is on cutting expenditures, thus operating _against_ the debt blow out to 40trn. 

While I don't particularly like locking up sats for this long a period (the election gamble where most of us made out like bandits was a good trial run, but also over a much short time horizon), this seems like a no-brainer. 

Free sats on the table. *_Will I grab some?_*
