PrestonVangF0F

lightning

This Worldcoin thing seems to have latched on and captured some buzz. Two weeks ago, I [wrote about why](https://stacker.news/items/214672) this is the case (it's mostly a somewhat-AI connection and the iris-scanning orb, with a touch of altruistic UBI thrown in). The question now becomes, "Does this Worldcoin thing have longevity or will this too pass?"
Auroracoin flashback

Monday I was jogging, listening to a crypto podcast, and sweltering in heat. The podcast hosts were talking Worldcoin, the orb, and possibilities of surveillance state actions. This was all kind of predictable as this has been the discussion of Worldcoin from the start. Yet, for some reason, I was reminded of Auroracoin. I felt I had figured out the intrigue of Worldcoin initially, but now, I think I've got this Worldcoin thing figured out going forward.

To back up, Auroracoin was intended as a cryptocurrency for the residents of Iceland. It came out in 2014, rather early in crypto-time, and I wrote [a post](http://satoshitimes.wikidot.com/blog:9) on it in a blog I called "[The Satoshi Times](http://satoshitimes.wikidot.com/)" (I've since chronicled each of the articles over to web3 on the Hive blockchain with the [@SatoshiTimes](https://hive.blog/@satoshitimes) account).

![auroracoin-scene](https://imgprxy.stacker.news/75wKX3OSN1ma1LO8TuzYtUv8ZWYx0l5sCawjH8bpUgE/rs:fit:600:500:0/g:no/aHR0cHM6Ly9maWxlcy5wZWFrZC5jb20vZmlsZS9wZWFrZC1oaXZlL2NycmRseC8yM3RiTUdRbXJnSGgxN045WEtZVmFaQUZlTFZQelMyZDVrYXBpbUpSc2NOVUZHVUNwYlJpWllZbnlTQU1tU0NYMTVmUUMuanBn)

>Image created at https://leonardo.ai using prompt: aurora borealis iceland viking bitcoin

The [Auroracoin](https://en.auroracoin.is/) experiment was this: every Iceland resident was to get airdropped 31.8 coins. The intriguing thing about this is the island thing. Economists love islands. They love the isolation an island has and how and island has historically provided a unique playground in studying an economy. It makes for a contained, experimental atmosphere. In my original blog post, I theorized possible things Icelanders might do, such as: get the coins or not, hodl them, spend them, lose the keys, get them stolen. My thought then was that some people would wind up with fewer or zero coins, some would wind up with more, some would be gone forever. I'd forgotten this, but looking back, I see I drew and included a graphic:

![airdrop.JPG](https://imgprxy.stacker.news/hXcPzRSbmKFhFFsQjy53hqT-RgWZtDH8SQUWwNsPoXY/rs:fit:600:500:0/g:no/aHR0cHM6Ly9maWxlcy5wZWFrZC5jb20vZmlsZS9wZWFrZC1oaXZlL2NycmRseC8yM3N4TGd5NmlpWTg3dENodm5ZYU54U25qRXVZWXNnZjNrc0FFdEJVRXRyZUx5U2Jxb2F5QVBaWWhVR2p5d1ZqMkprTEouSlBH)

Once the airdrop went live and "price discovery" began, the chart began. The chart for Auroracoin started out strong, peaking at $28 per coin.

![priceearly.jpg](https://imgprxy.stacker.news/Jie6T6Rk_30v_ivlsf2Zk9MJhAmT7h9u0_aN5jGb-Z4/rs:fit:600:500:0/g:no/aHR0cHM6Ly9maWxlcy5wZWFrZC5jb20vZmlsZS9wZWFrZC1oaXZlL2NycmRseC8yM3RIYmtqVFB5TXRCOGJYbUdnZWdkQUxERlpiaEhmQVF3OHVXU3d2d1BkWTJyTlBOOFBMQ3VEWHh3VTRNRHNYcDVkR1UuanBn)

Within a week or so, the Auroracoin dropped quickly, had a little bump in the 2017-18 frenzy, then flatlined. It's now at $0.016 USD (see [current price](https://coinpaprika.com/coin/aur-auroracoin/)). Those 31.8 coins are now worth about half a dollar: $0.51.

![pricealltime.jpg](https://imgprxy.stacker.news/yPlhcpBXHeTWgbykmnzV8xmL7cK3rEm-p2UaLdCLqko/rs:fit:600:500:0/g:no/aHR0cHM6Ly9maWxlcy5wZWFrZC5jb20vZmlsZS9wZWFrZC1oaXZlL2NycmRseC8yM3ZzckZ4Ym83SkFtNjFoOEFEd3F2d0ZoNW1SZFREY0d3aVdHb2FnVFJ2Ykp3TjFDbVZteXpacW50NnJ0UUNLcTJuS2EuanBn)

There was one thing I did not include in my flowchart list of possible actions, and it's a glaring omission...people might flip their Auroracoin for another coin, likely for BTC.

I wrote a [followup post](http://satoshitimes.wikidot.com/blog:10) two weeks later and brought this point up. I wrote this:

>The idea of an Iceland-only currency seems a bit wrong. Many Icelanders sold their coins to whomever. It's better labeled as a Icelander-first coin. Then, it's on the world wide web and is international. **The concept of a local-only coin seems futile**.

This illustrates the problem cryptocurrencies bring about with the island-studied-by-economists concept: crypto knows and follows no borders. Coins follow economic principles (and code), not lines on maps. It would have been true that, when buying/selling, more Auroracoins would wind up in someone's wallet as compared to others. But, the wise Auroracoin holders unloaded them quickly into BTC while Aurora had some decent initial value. The speculators who bought those early Auroracoins didn't come out too well.
Worldcoin island

What occurred to me while jogging Monday was this:

```Worldcoin is just Auroracoin on a really big island, the Earth/world island.```

Here's what I see happening with WLD:

I believe 20 or so were given out, WLD is just under $2.00 now. Since WLD is focusing on developing nations, that $40 to $50 could mean food on the table for a family. The early recipients of WLD (see [current price](https://coinpaprika.com/coin/wld-worldcoin/)) might do well to flip it as fast as possible [not financial advice, DYOR].

But, the tokenomics and distribution of WLD do not look good to me. First, it's a bit hard to even find the tokenomics, emission, inflation, distribution, etc. on the WLD website, and that's a huge red flag in my book. Secondly, I understand it to be that each person who validates "personhood" via the orb will receive tokens as a Universal Basic Income (UBI). It's unclear to me if this UBI is in perpetuity, e.g. each month? each year? or if it's a one time only airdrop. If it's a perpetual UBI (isn't that the whole point of UBI, else it's just called a one time gift?), that really bodes poorly for WLD in my view.

A continual UBI to anyone validated would mean a few things. First, there would be constant, persistent downward pressure on the value of WLD tokens. In other words, there would be **constant emission and inflation**. Like trying to top-off a bucket with water although the bucket has a gaping hole in the bottom, it's hard to get ahead that way. Secondly, as more and more people proved their personhood (which would happen if WLD had any value), that downward pressure would constantly grow even greater. It would be a Catch 22...the greater the WLD value, the more **incentive for people to prove personhood**, get their UBI, and thus create even more inflation (i.e., less WLD value). Third, although the main premise of the orb and WLD is to prove personhood, people have an amazing capacity for **working the system**. If something has value and is being given out, people find ways to clever ways to finagle it. I'm very skeptical that just because an eyeball was scanned, pilferage or scammery would not occur. Again, if WLD was worth the effort, people would find a way to get it. Again, Catch 22, the greater the WLD value, the greater the chance for bad actions. And, the greater the inflation and downward pressure on value.
In sum

I did one last followup on Auroracoin [a year later](http://satoshitimes.wikidot.com/blog:_start/p/4). I see the same fate with Worldcoin. When you strip away the popular chatter about AI, the orb, and UBI (and this chatter will decline), the economics and incentives behind Worldcoin are the only things that matter. And, in my view, the economics and incentives do not look good for WLD. My guess...it will fade.

For fun, one more image...
![viking-ship](https://imgprxy.stacker.news/oJJn7XqVVYw2vC7ZDSTwoKDI_ENp2ALo4x70LLNN6Ww/rs:fit:600:500:0/g:no/aHR0cHM6Ly9maWxlcy5wZWFrZC5jb20vZmlsZS9wZWFrZC1oaXZlL2NycmRseC8yM3R2QjNKcTJqdk44eVBnUGpkNU44ckJadmttR2JGOVdicEYyTkNtUkxNRlY3WVhTdUVtUm9xenNqNEYzelZDZVZrMkUuanBn)
>Created at https://leonardo.ai with prompt: A viking ship sails through a shimmering aurora borealis, its sails adorned with a cryptocurrency symbol.


Originally posted at https://hive.blog/@crrdlx/how-i-think-worldcoin-is-going-to-pan-out

How I think Worldcoin is going to pan out.

bitcoin

Bitcoin and me

KelliBensonJ4D

Yes. It was founded by someone else late last year. I think @MEME_LORD started it but it was archived and SN just says that I am the founder based on the date it originally went live. 

I discovered it. 

![](https://m.stacker.news/56217)

libertarian

Have you ever completely changed your mind on something big?

My comments: https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/1609655629903265795

tl;dr: I've confirmed that this is real and not a Twitter hack. Unfortunately Luke's setup was pretty standard. But that's not good enough; there's a good chance that Luke wasn't even specifically targeted, and non-govt actors could have definitely done the hack.

Complacency is a big threat to security, and we're all vulnerable to it.

I have. There's two things that come to mind, as areas that I've done a full 180 on. One is vaccination, and the other is nutrition.

**Vaccination**...I distinctly remember, years ago, thinking to myself how evil those parents were, that chose to NOT vaccinate their children (and thus, supposedly, risked harm to other children). 

I don't even know what prompted this thought - I suspect that it was a rabidly pro-vaccine article in mainstream media, likely bought and paid for by the pharma industry. I had never even KNOWN anyone who was unvaccinated, or didn't vaccinate their kids. Or at least, anyone who talked openly about it. 

I actually had a yearly recurring calendar appointment, for the whole family to get a flu shot every fall. I thought all these shots were GOOD for us. Big regrets there.

I'm sure you all can guess what caused me to change my mind on that one, of course it was covid. In the area where I used to live, not being vaccinated was tantamount to being an untouchable. I remember planning a group hike with some people, only about half of whom I knew. I was told that it might be a good idea to keep quiet about not being vaccinated. The hike didn't actually happen (all social activity plummeted and hasn't recovered) but I certainly wouldn't have felt welcome if it had.

Covid, and the intense, constant pressure to get a shots made me skeptical. Being skeptical made me do some poking around, and luckily I found a reddit subforum called something like CovidSkeptics (which, of course, ended up being shut down). That opened the door to lots of other information that I gulped down like a person dying of thirst drinking a glass of water.

**Nutrition** is the other issue I've done a 180 on. This is what I used to think:
- Fruits and vegetables are good. The more, the better.
- Whole grains are good
- Fiber is good.
- Low fat is good, if you need some fat you should use canola oil
- All animal products, and particularly meat, should be strictly limited, and used more as a condiment

I've completely switched my diet now, to carnivore/animal-based. Basically I eat lots of high fat beef - I never get tired of it - and also eggs, some dairy, fish, and poultry. 

What caused this drastic change? Most people who go carnivore are trying to lose weight, or have some kind of autoimmune disease, or digestive issues. I didn't have any of those issues, but I was not satisfied with my health. As much as I tried to eat healthy, and eat all the "superfoods" that I could, I didn't feel that great. 

So I was open to new ideas. And really, I have Saifedean Ammous to thank for introducing me to the carnivore diet, as well as to bitcoin. Because of my respect for him based on his book The Bitcoin Standard, I was open the idea of carnivore. He mentions it occasionally on his podcast, and also interviews lots of people that have alternative ideas about nutrition. The guest that influenced me the most was Nina Teicholtz. Her book, The Big Fat Surprise, was a revelation, and within a month of reading that, I had become carnivore.  

So, those are my stories about how I changed my mind on a few big topics. How about you?










I have been inspired by other stackers mainly https://stacker.news/DarthCoin and https://stacker.news/Natalia to share my story.

This is difficult to write out but I will give it a shot. I lived very similar to how Natalia lived with her Nomad lifestyle. It was roughly 10 years ago and what she says is mostly true you get used to get and the excitement wears off however it is my favourite type of lifestyle.

I travelled all over Southeast Asia mainly Thailand I even became a Scuba dive instructor over there. I had a blast fell in love fell out of love and felt like my true authentic self.

However it didn’t last forever and I ran out of cash had to move back to my home country. Unfortunately the person I was overseas didn’t make it back with me and I slowly returned to who was back home. This broke me and I had my first mental breakdown. I dropped down to 45kg and moved to live with my Aunt and Uncle who nursed me back to good health.

Since that time I had a few more mental breakdowns but I do feel better and stronger for them. I worked a wide range of jobs including call centres, chef, dry cleaners, carpenter, plumber, landscaper, hospitality front and back of house so I became quite handy over the years. 

Only just now do I feel like the person I was overseas. I finally managed to bring my authentic self out. This is just a brief overview of who I am and what has happened to me and I truly believe I am about to start on the greatest adventure of my life.

Based on the reaction of my past post I will try and write and post more to give everyone an update on how my life is going. Thank-you all for reading. 

Love from Oialt.