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made me realize how bad my estimates of the economy have been over the last few years.

good you didn't participate in prediction markets about it, lol 👀

sorry, replied too fast, reading the rest now :)

i have to admit that i don't know much about economy stuff but

Maybe Powell is just kicking the can down the road again by signaling for lower interest rates (and more money printing), but it’s hard for me to deny that he’s done a good job keeping the economy together… and both can be true.

how come you think that it's thanks to his actions not despite of his actions?

that isn't clear to me reading your post. is the only variable in a economy really just the interest rate that Powell sets? Or in other words: Does Powell have full reign over the economy or are there other variables he is not in control? (Honest question, as mentioned, I don't know much about this stuff but I would like to know)

Yes. When organisms have enough, pro-sociality can get expansive. I think about this all the time. It's an interesting lens to invert: if someone is being a giant douche, what else is probably true, or has been true?

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I'll take that as a compliment.

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